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MGA bonus mathematics

Is your casino bonus actually worth it?

We calculate the expected value of welcome bonuses at 14 MGA-licensed casinos. Only math, in plain English.

tracking

14

MGA welcome packages tracked

positive EV

1

bonuses that still hold value

negative

13

bonuses that cost money

market signal

Of the 14 casinos, only 1 currently shows positive expected value. The top 3 below are sorted by score.

The most expensive examples right now are Karamba (−€180.77), ComeOn (−€160.00), NetBet (−€60.58). That's why we break down caps, rules and wagering, not only the headline amount.

top EV

Top 3 bonuses with the highest expected value

Based on deposit and a standard slot profile.

only positive EV in the catalog

1PlayOJO logo

PlayOJO

50 free spins

25 May 2026
+€4.80Bonus value plus 4.80 euros, expected loss minus 0.00 euros, net expected value plus 4.80 euros.

expected value at €100 deposit

expected return: 5%No wagering requirement
View calculation
2Casumo logo

Casumo

100% up to €300 + 20 spins

25 May 2026
−€20.38Bonus value plus 101.92 euros, expected loss minus 122.30 euros, net expected value minus 20.38 euros.

expected value at €100 deposit

expected return: 0%30× wager
View calculation
3888 Casino logo

888 Casino

100% up to €500 + 100 spins

25 May 2026
−€21.92Bonus value plus 109.60 euros, expected loss minus 131.52 euros, net expected value minus 21.92 euros.

expected value at €100 deposit

expected return: 0%30× wager
View calculation

All calculations: RTP 96,5%, bet €0,20 per spin. Wagering only on bonus funds unless stated otherwise. See our methodology →

For comparison: the worst bonus (Karamba) costs you −€180.77 at the same €100 deposit.

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Never miss a better bonus again

Casinos quietly change their bonuses. We track it all and only email you when it matters.

01

Updates when EV rankings shift

02

New bonus actions without marketing noise

03

Alerts when terms get worse

signal

A compact update when something actually changes in the market.

No spam. Only when it matters.

tools

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Comparison

All casinos compared

Sort 14 casinos by expected value, filter by bonus type and see which ones have a positive EV.

14 casinos · PlayOJO: +€4.80 · Casumo: −€20.38

Open the comparison →

Simulator

Variance simulator

What are the real odds of coming out ahead? Simulate thousands of sessions and see how often you end up above or below zero.

Example

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